First in Blue, JetBlue Part B

By Shihal Sapry

Now that we have introduced JetBlue and their fleet in Part A, we will pursue the US Transcontinental market. In this article, we will need to make certain assumptions and restrict certain criteria in order to ensure that we do not deviate from topic.

First off, we need to define the US Transcontinental market. Since this is JetBlue focused, a flight between the East and West Coast of the United States is our ideal target area. Taking this a step further, considering flights between JetBlue hubs and other cities only, is ideal. However, not all US airlines have hubs at JetBlue hubs.

Therefore we have to consider other flights/destinations as well. Let us consider the American Airlines hub at Dallas Fort Worth or Miami. We can consider a flight from Miami to Los Angeles as being Transcontinental in nature and a flight from Miami to Washington DC as not being considered Transcontinental in nature. Another example is, if we consider JetBlue's JFK and Fort Lauderdale Hubs. A flight from JFK to Fort Lauderdale in Florida will not be considered as Transcontinental, whereas a flight from Fort Lauderdale to Los Angeles can be considered as Transcontinental.

Now that we have defined our geographical areas, we will discuss airlines of interest. As we have discussed previously, JetBlue is a premium Low Cost Carrier that offers a Business Class product. Therefore, we only consider carriers that offer a Business Class/Premium Cabin. We will use the Business Class designation which includes the US Domestic First Class. First Class only refers to the specially configured American Airlines aircraft, which offer a premium cabin product above their Business Class product. Premium Economy will refer to all seats that are neither economy not Business nor First. Premium Economy includes extra legroom Economy.

While ultra-low cost carriers offer a Premium Cabin, their regular economy class product is of a poorer quality than JetBlue. Furthermore, they do not compete with JetBlue's Mint product.

Now we should consider aircraft types. Since we are trying to gain insight on the A321NEO LR, we should automatically exclude any widebody service on the US Transcontinental market. As the A321 is a large narrowbody, we should also exclude any aircraft smaller than the A320. We will include the 757-200 and exclude the 757-300. The A321NEO LR is touted as a 757-200 replacement and the 757-300 is more representative of a widebody in terms of capacity. If an airline has multiple layouts for the same aircraft, the most premium dense layout or "International" layout was selected.

Based on this, in addition to JetBlue it is necessary to list the airlines considered.

1). Alaska Airlines(Including Virgin America)

2). American Airlines

3). Delta Airlines

4). United Airlines

These airlines together with their fleet types that meet the criteria yield 38 data points. This is far too many for us to consider as is. For now, we discuss by airlines. Within each airline, we will discuss each fleet type where possible. When we venture into Transatlantic territory, we will narrow our criteria even further to ensure that only the most relevant aircraft and airlines are considered.

It is important that we discuss the JetBlue fleet in greater detail.

JetBlue

We have discussed cabin layout specific to the fleet in Part A. Just a reminder, the JetBlue Premium Economy is merely extra legroom Economy. We do not include data labels for each bar graph as it is difficult to read. After great deliberation, I decided to include a table for each airline after the graph to aid in the discussion.

Graph 1: JetBlue Fleet

"A320 1" refers to the original A320 configuration. "A320 2" refers to the refurbished configuration. "A321 T" refers to the Mint configuration.

Table 1: JetBlue Fleet

With their A320's having generous seat pitch of 34" in Economy Class, JetBlue is clearly a premium biased low cost carrier. Furthermore, 28% of the A320's capacity is dedicated towards Premium Economy. With the A320 retrofit, the aircraft have a smaller seat pitch, but JetBlue claims that they have the largest economy class seat pitch in the continental US. Due to the 2 rows of Economy Class seats, the percentage of capacity dedicated to the Premium Cabin is lower, at 25.93%.

The regular A321 does not have anything exciting to write about, except that the cabin comfort is comparable to that of the A320 in terms of seat dimensions. The other interesting point is that despite being larger, the A321 has the same number of Premium Economy seats is the same as the A320. This represents 21% of capacity for the A321.

We have discussed the Mint A321 cabin in Part A. On the Mint A321, the Premium Economy and Economy Cabins are the same as those on the regular A321 and A320. We will note that the number of Premium Economy Seats are approximately the same as the rest of JetBlue's fleet of interest(We ignore the one seat difference). Premium Economy on the Mint A321 represents 26.42% of total capacity. This is ratio is less than 2% smaller than the A320 Premium Economy ratio. If we analyse further, we determine that the number of Premium Economy Seats are the same on both, the A320 and Mint A321(We ignore the one seat difference). Furthermore, the A320 has 6 additional economy class seats(2 rows) over the Mint A321(We are comparing the pre-refurbishment A320, but the argument holds for the refurbished A320 too). We therefore note that the difference between the two aircraft is only the Mint Cabin. We can therefore conclude that the Mint A321 is, on an elementary level, an A320 with Mint. We can also conclude that JetBlue has an optimal number of Premium Economy Seats.

This demonstrates prudence by JetBlue. This leads me to believe that the cabin layout was chosen in this way so that JetBlue can analyse their Mint cabin independent of other cabins. With the non-Mint cabin being comparable to that of the A320 in terms of capacity, the airline can consider those cabins to be equivalent to deploying an A320 on the route. They can go further and consider this as an A320 operating with a Mint cabin, with the operating economics of the A321. It is a more modular approach and a modular approach is far easier to work with. It is a convoluted manner to look at the A321 Mint, but it is a logical way for JetBlue to analyse the Mint aircraft in relation to their existing fleet and routes.

Alaska Airlines(Including Virgin America)

This includes Virgin America's fleet of A320 and A321 aircraft. Alaska Airlines is hubbed in Seattle but flies to New York. Alaska Airlines operates Boeing 737 aircraft. Their aircraft of interest are the 737-800, 737-900 and 737-900ER aircraft. It is important to mention the non ER 737-900's. They will not be included in this analysis but have been added to the graphs and tables for completeness. We consider the 737-900ER's with Premium Cabins. Alaska Airlines bought Virgin America and is in the process of merging the two airlines. Therefore, we consider the Virgin America aircraft with Alaska Airlines

A small note about Virgin America Aircraft. Virgin America has an A320 layout with 3 additional economy class seats. This translates into half a row. We include it in the bar graph for the sake of completeness. Both Alaska Airlines' and Virgin America's Premium Economy Cabins are extra legroom Economy. I have also included the JetBlue A321 Mint layout in the table. This will further aid discussions.

Graph 2: Alaska Airlines and Virgin America

Table 2: Alaska Airlines and Virgin America

The table aids in explaining the notation used in the graph. The notation is thus self explanatory.

The trend here is that the Virgin America aircraft are less Premium Dense than the Alaska Airlines aircraft. Virgin America utilised their A320's on flights between New York and Los Angeles.

The Alaskan 737-800 has a 50% larger Business Class Cabin as compared to the Virgin A320. Premium Economy is almost 3 times larger, although this is extra legroom Economy. 13.70% of Virgin America's A320 capacity is dedicated to the Premium Cabin. Alaska Airlines 737-800 has 26.42% of capacity dedicated to the Premium Cabin which is double the Premium capacity of Virgin America.

It is interesting to note that the Alaskan 737-800 is more premium dense that the larger 737-900ER. The 737-900ER has 22.47% of its capacity dedicated to the Premium Cabin.

The Alaskan 737-900ER has a 50% larger Business Class Cabin as compared to the Virgin A321. Virgin American has configured their A321's with additional Premium Economy capacity over their A320's. While Alaska Airlines has done the opposite by reducing their Premium Economy capacity on their 737-900ER's over their 737-800's. This means that the Alaska Airlines Premium Economy Cabin is only 33% larger. This is a large decrease over the 300% difference in the 737-800 and A320 discussion.

It is the Alaska 737-900ER which is the closest match, in terms of capacity to the JetBlue A321 Mint. Business Class cabins are equal in terms of capacity but the JetBlue layout is more premium due to their 2 a breast suite. JetBlue has a larger Premium Economy Cabin with 41 Seats. This represents a 70.83% increase in capacity over the Alaskan 737-900ER. This means that the JetBlue Economy Class is 26.08% smaller than the Alaskan 737-900ER.

American Airlines

American Airlines operates a wide variety of aircraft. American Airlines flies Transatlantic with narrowbody 757-200 equipment. These flights are centered around the US East Coast to Western Europe. Some flights are seasonal.

For the 737-800, all layouts are identical except for Personal TV screens. This reduces the number of possible data points. The American Airlines Premium Economy is extra legroom Economy.

Graph 3: American Airlines

Table 3: American Airlines

The "757 1" layout has lie flat Business Class Seats. The "A321 T" refers to specially configured A321's.

The A320 and 737-800 fleets are approximately similar in capacity. The 737-800 has a 25% larger Business Class Cabin with a 67% larger Premium Economy Cabin with an Economy Class Cabin that is 5% smaller. The 737MAX 8 has the same capacity as the 737-800, with a larger Economy Class Cabin. This is possible through 737MAX efficiencies in bathroom and galley design, with reduced seat pitch in all cabins.

The A321 T's fly between New York and Los Angeles, San Francisco. These aircraft are very premium dense and feature a First Class Cabin, which is a step up from their Business Class Cabin. The A321 T has more Premium Cabin seats than Economy Class Seats. This First Class seat is from their Business Class Cabin on their 777-300ER. 67% of capacity is dedicated to the Premium Cabins. This underlines the premium nature of the routes these aircraft fly.

Regarding the 757-200, the "757 1" layout has lies flat Business Class Seats. This is the layout used on Transatlantic service. American Airlines utilises these aircraft on scheduled service between the US East Coast and Western Europe. American Airlines has utilised the aircraft on flights between:

1). Philadelphia to Amsterdam

2). New York JFK to Manchester

3). Philadelphian to Lisbon

4). Boston to Paris CDG

5). Chicago O' Hare to Manchester

6). New York JFK to Birmingham

7). Philadelphian to Brussels

8). New York JFK to Glasgow

We can conclude that the 757-200 is a capable aircraft by being able to fly these routes. We will discuss aircraft performance later on in the series.

The aircraft have recently been retrofitted. The Business Class Cabin takes up a smaller percentage of capacity with 9.09%. Premium Economy takes a larger percentage of capacity with 29.55%. This aircraft has the largest number of Premium Economy seats for the American Airlines aircraft of interest. Bear in mind these are extra legroom Economy Class Seats. With 32.5% of Economy Class being Premium Economy, we can comment that the regular Economy Class is not spacious enough for a Transatlantic flight. We can conclude, that on Transatlantic routes, passengers on American Airlines are willing to pay more for additional legroom in Economy Class. This bodes well for JetBlue, as JetBlue's regular Economy is equivalent to American Airlines' Premium Economy.

The A321 T is a close match for the Mint A321. The logic for this is that JetBlue offers both a 2 and 4 a breast Business Class layout. In this light, JetBlue and American Airlines are the only carriers to offer a 2 abreast Premium product on a narrowbody on US Transcontinental flights. American Airlines offers far more seats than what JetBlue offers. We must note that American Airlines knew the market that they were entering so they were more certain of their decision, as opposed to JetBlue who just entered the Business Class market. Since the A321 T is so premium dense, it is not an appropriate match for the Mint A321.

We therefore consider the "757 1". The number of Business Class seats are the same as the Mint A321. We must note that the JetBlue Business Class is more premium(in terms of the Mint Suites), as the American Airlines layout is 4 a breast. JetBlue offers seatback entertainment whereas American Airlines does not. The Premium Economy capacity of the 757-200 is 26.83% larger than the Mint A321. The Economy Class capacity of the 757-200 is only 6 seats larger than the Mint A321. Bear in mind that the American Airlines products offer smaller seat pitch in all cabins of service. This helps American Airlines fit more seats on the plane. The 757-200 is a slightly larger aircraft which means it will have a larger capacity over the A321.

Since this discussion has been lengthy, I have decided to stop here for Part B. This is so that there is no information overload and to ensure understanding. We will continue with Part C where we discuss Delta and United Airlines. We will round up our discussion of the US Transcontinental market. I apologise if the tables are not depicted properly.