Is there overcapacity at Lufthansa? Part A

By Shihal Sapry

With the airline planning to defer 777-X deliveries, the question does come to mind. This analysis focuses only on the larger long haul aircraft. Aircraft smaller than and including the A340-300 are not included. We will compare the A340-600 and A350-900, 747-400 and the 747-8I as well as evaluate where the A380-800 fits in.

The following table summarises Lufthansa's current fleet of interest.

We will attempt to evaluate where the 777-X would fit into Lufthansa's fleet. Only the most Premium and least Premium configurations will be analysed. As far as possible, equivalent configurations will be used to analyse the aircraft.

Part A involves the A340-600 and A350-900.

As per Lufthansa's Cabin Layouts, this aircraft size segment is from 280 to 320 seats depending on Premium/Non-Premium Layouts.

Lufthansa does not operate any other aircraft in this size segment. They do operate an A340-300 that has 18 Business Class seats and is Economy Cabin Dense, but it operates as Lufthansa Cityline. This allows us to ignore this aircraft. While the A350-900 is sized for an A340-300 replacement, Lufthansa is using the new aircraft to replace their A340-600 fleet. The A340-600's are primarily based at Munich. Lufthansa was one of few airlines not to jump on the 777 bandwagon. At the time, it was not financially viable to switch fleets and Lufthansa appear to be happy with their A340 fleet. We will now analyse the Premium A340 with a Premium A350 and vice versa. The A350-900's do not have a First Class cabin whereas the A340-600's do.

From the table above, we can deduce that the A340-600 is more Premium Dense than its replacement. If we remove the A340-600's First Class Cabin, the capacity of the A340-600 will be greater than that of the A350-900 in all cabin classes. There is 100% and 14.29% percentage decrease in First and a Business Class Cabins respectively. There is a 25% decrease in Premium Cabin capacity and a 18.52% increase in Economy Cabin capacity.

We can conclude with these capacity changes, the A350-900 in a Premium Layout, is not able to fit the capacity of the larger A340-600. There is an overall 4% capacity increase, primarily attributed to the larger Economy Class Cabin capacity on the A350-900. By these capacity changes, we note overcapacity in the Premium Cabins and under capacity in the Economy Cabin.

Moving onto the less Premium A340-600 and A350-900.

Once again, a percentage decrease of 100% and 18.18% is noted in First and Business Class Cabins respectively. We note a massive 34.38% decrease in Premium Cabin capacity and a 23% increase in Economy Cabin capacity. We can conclude that even with these capacity changes, the A350-900 in a Non-Premium layout, is still unable to fit the capacity of the larger A340-600. There is a net 7.41% capacity increase attributed to the smaller Premium Cabins and larger Economy Class Cabin. By these capacity changes, we note overcapacity in the Premium Cabins and under capacity in the Economy Cabin.

In conclusion, Lufthansa has configured their A350-900's appropriately to replace their A340-600's. It is remarkable that they are able to do so, given that the A350-1000 is more appropriately sized(by design) to replace A340-600's and 777-300ER's. Overall, in the Premium Cabins, the capacity decrease is 22.96 % and an 20.76% increase in Economy Cabin capacity. We can therefore conclude that in this aircraft size segment, there is overcapacity in the Premium Cabin and under capacity in the Economy Cabin. We can go a step further and note that there is a 29.69% decrease in Premium Economy capacity.

TBy decreasing their Premium Cabin capacity and increasing Economy Cabin capacity, it is reasonable to conclude that Lufthansa is attempting to better compete for Economy Class passengers, with competitors including low cost carriers. Hence we cannot conclude that overcapacity exists in this aircraft size segment(280 to 320). T

The graph above depicts the capacity split between the two fleet types. "P" denotes the premium dense layout. "E" denotes the less premium dense layout.

In Part B we will discuss the 747 fleet.