From the Middle East and Turkey to the US West Coast Part A

By Shihal Sapry

This is an Etihad Airways inspired analysis. San Francisco is losing one of their Middle Eastern connections as Etihad has ended their San Francisco service in October 2017. We will analyse the US West Coast destinations served by the Gulf Three and Turkish Airlines. Even though parts of Turkey are in Europe, we included Turkish Airlines since they are expanding quite rapidly and are offering a competitive alternative to Emirates, Etihad and Qatar. Any destination East of Las Vegas will not be considered as part of the US West Coast. 

Part A will focus on the city of Los Angeles. There are 3 airlines connecting Los Angeles with the Gulf region. They are Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways serving from their hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dubai respectively) is served by all 3 airlines. Turkish Airlines serves Los Angeles from its Istanbul Hub. Flights from Doha to Los Angeles, are scheduled at 16 hours 40 minutes with actual flight time ranging from 15.5 to 16 hours. Flights from Dubai to Los Angeles are scheduled at 16 hours 20 minutes with actual flight time ranging from 15.5 to 16 hours. Flights from Abu Dhabi to Los Angeles, are scheduled at 17 hours dead with actual flight time ranging from 16 to 16.5 hours. Flights from Istanbul to Los Angeles, are scheduled at 14 hours 10 minutes with actual flight time ranging from 13 to 13.5 hours.

Emirates started off with a 3 times weekly 777-200LR service in October 2008. A year later they went daily. Two years later they went double daily. In October 2012, they deployed a 3 class 777-300ER on one of the two daily rotations.  The 777-300ER is payload restricted with Economy Class seats being blocked off.  Emirates ascertained they could generate additional revenue, due to the larger capacity of the 777-300ER. Later on, they went twice daily on the 777-300ER. Towards the end of 2013, Emirates deployed their A380 onto the daily EK215/216.

In March 2017, EK217/218 was downsized to 777-200LR and has subsequently been cancelled indefinitely. In May/June 2017, Emirates decreased their service frequencies to the US. They attributed this to lower demand due to President Trump's immigration policies as well as the electronics ban. Emirates uses a ultra long range(ULR) A380/777-300ER to the west coast. On the A380, a crew rest takes the place of 28 economy class seats. Emirates uses Jetblue and/or Alaska Airlines to codeshare onto other US cities. The following graph depicts the capacity of Emirates:

At its capacity peak, Emirates had 22 First, 118 Business, 703 Economy Class Seats yielding a total of 843 daily seats daily into Los Angeles. Capacity has since decreased to a single daily A380.

Etihad Airways started flying the route in June 2014 on a daily basis. A 777-200LR currently flies the route. However for the first 6 months of 2018 Etihad is going 4 times weekly on a 777-300ER.  It is very likely that Etihad will use their Premium Dense 777-300ER into Los Angeles. Etihad used American Airlines to codeshare to other US cities. However, since American Airlines ended their codesharing with Etihad, Etihad will codeshare with JetBlue. The graph below depict the capacity differences. 

There will be a decrease in all Cabins however, by reducing the frequency of flights. The Economy Class Cabin decrease is somewhat mitigated by the 777-300ER having a larger Economy Class Cabin. The Premium Cabin decrease is less substantial by virtue of the 777-200LR and 777-300ER having the same Premium Cabin capacity.

Qatar Airways began serving Los Angeles daily in January 2016 on board a 777-200LR. Qatar Airways is a new entrant in this market. Oneworld partner American Airlines used to codeshare with American Airlines. Since this will end, Qatar Airways has started using Alaska Airlines and JetBlue for codeshares onto other US cities.  

Turkish Airlines began flying to Los Angeles 4 times weekly on March 2011 onboard 777-. Flights then went daily in 2012 and then up to 11 times weekly in July 2016. Due to the political situation, the flight now operates daily as opposed to 11 times weekly. Turkish Airlines has it the easiest in terms of codeshares, by being a Star Alliance member. United Airlines has adequate connections to support the Istanbul flight. The graph below depicts the capacity between the cabin classes for Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines. 

Qatar Airways does not have a First Class Cabin on their 777-200LR.  Qatar is the only Gulf carrier to have 9 a breast economy class seats on their 777-200LR's. What is interesting, is that their 777-300ER's underwent a retrofit from 9 a breast to 10 a breast in Economy.

Turkish Airlines does not have a First Class Cabin on their 777-300ER. Turkish Airlines reconfigured their 777-300ER's by replacing their Premium Economy Cabin additional Business Class Seats. Turkish Airlines has a comfortable 9 a breast Economy Class on the 777-300ER and is the only airline in this feature, to have this layout on the 777-300ER.

We will now compare the current capacity offerings of the 3 airlines. 

This gives us an indication of the fleet types that have flown into Los Angeles. Emirates offered the largest range in total seat numbers, ranging from 266 to 489 seats per flight. Currently, Emirates only offers the A380 daily service. Currently Etihad offers the fewest seats with 239. The Emirates 777 no longer serves the route and Etihad will fly the 777-300ER from March next year.

The mean number of First Class seats is pushed downwards by Qatar and Turkish, and pushed upwards by Emirates. 50% of the airlines flying this route do not offer a First Class Product. Emirates offers the largest number of daily First Class Seats(14).

The mean number of Business Class seats is 47.29. This has been slightly pushed upwards by the Emirates A380. Once again Emirates offers the largest number of daily seats (76). of the Boeing 777 service, Turkish Airlines offers the largest number of daily Business Class Seats(49). This is more than what Emirates offers on their own 777-300ER(42).

The mean number of Economy Class Seats is pushed upwards by the Emirates A380 and to a lesser extent by Turkish Airlines. It is pushed downwards by the Etihad 777-200LR. Emirates once again offers the largest number of daily Economy Class Seats(399). Once again of the Boeing 777 operators, Turkish Airlines offers the largest number of daily Economy Class Seats(300). This is just 4 seats less than what Emirates offers on their own 777-300ER. A point to note is that Turkish Airlines offers a 9 a breast Economy Class seating, versus the 10 a breast on Emirates.

The Standard Deviation of each Cabin Class is reflective of the various aircraft types included in the analysis. The most popular aircraft is the 777 with only Emirates using an A380.

Currently Emirates is the market leader with 489 seats reflecting 36.60% of total capacity. Turkish Airlines is in second place with 349 seats reflecting 26.21% of total capacity. Qatar Airways had 259 seats reflecting 19.38% of total capacity. Etihad has the smallest capacity with only 17.81%. There are currently 22 First, 207 Business, 1107 Economy Class Seats, yielding a total of 1336 daily seats into Los Angeles.  In Part B, we discuss San Francisco.