From the Middle East and Turkey to the US West Coast Part B

By Shihal Sapry

In Part A, we discussed the city of Los Angeles. In Part B, we will discuss the city of San Francisco. Part C will continue on this topic. Here is a link for Part A.

Of the 4 airlines being analysed, only Qatar Airways does not serve San Francisco. Although they have indicated they intend to launch the route in 2018. No further details have been provided from the airline. Etihad Airways ended their Abu Dhabi to San Francisco service on the 28 October 2017. In this analysis we will assume that Etihad Airways, still fly this route. Once again, even though Turkey is not in the geographical Middle East, we included Turkish Airlines since they are expanding rapidly and able to offer a competitive alternative to Emirates, Etihad and Qatar.

Flights from Dubai to San Francisco are scheduled at 16 hours dead with actual flight time ranging from 15 to 15.5 hours. Flights from Abu Dhabi to San Francisco, are scheduled at 16 hours 15 minutes with actual flight time approximately 14.5 to 15 hours. Flights from Istanbul to San Francisco, are scheduled at 13 hours 40 minutes with actual flight time ranging from 12.5 to 13 hours.

Emirates' inaugural San Francisco service began in December 2008. It was initially a 3 times weekly service onboard the 777-200LR. The flight went daily in March 2009. In October 2009, Emirates introduced their 777-300ER on the route. The A380 was introduced on the route in December 2014. Emirates did not reduce any San Francisco service following their major US frequency cuts in 2017. Emirates uses a ultra long range(ULR) A380 to the west coast, with a crew rest takes the place of 28 economy class seats. Once again, Emirates uses Alaska Airlines/JetBlue for codesharing at San Francisco. With Alaska Airlines' purchase of Virgin America, Emirates can make use of their codeshares to offer additional connectivity. The following graph depicts the capacity of Emirates:

We note that the Premium Cabin capacity on the 777 fleet is the same with the 777-300ER having 88 additional Economy Class Seats. The A380 offers a 42.9%, 44.7% and a 23.8% capacity increase, over the 777-300ER, in First, Business and Economy Class respectively. We can therefore conclude that the A380 is more Premium Dense. which is attributed to the Business Class Cabin taking up 15.5% and 11.9% of total seats on the A380 and 777-300ER respectively.

Etihad Airways started flying the route in November 2014 on a daily basis using a Jet Airways configured 777-300ER. We must stress that Jet Airways did not fly this route. Etihad Airways used a Jet Airways configured 777-300ER. We will refer to this layout as the "Jet Airways" layout. The airline began to introduce its own 777-200LR, splitting the operation between the Jet Airways 777-300ER and the Etihad 777-200LR. In April 2016, Etihad began using their own 777-200LR. Up until ceasing flights, the Etihad 777-200LR flew the route. In February 2017, Etihad reduced the flight to 3 times weekly, indicating softening demand, before ending flights in October 2017.

Some observers might note that the introduction of Air India's Delhi to San Francisco service may have taken market share away from Etihad. However, we are not seeing a reduction in capacity by the other airlines in this analysis. Furthermore, through their partner, Jet Airways, Etihad offers convenient one stop transfers from India to the US. While rather subjective, the service and product offering of Etihad is superior to that of Air India. The convenience of a non-stop would appeal to certain travellers. Albeit in a price sensitive market, the non-stop is not always the cheapest option.

Another explanation, is that the US Immigration Policies as well as the Electronics Ban may have played a role in further reducing demand for flights, especially to Silicon Valley. With American Airlines ending their codesharing with Etihad Airways, there is minimal transfer traffic at San Francisco. Moreover, the airline's 9am departure from San Francisco limits connections from other cities. It appears that Etihad ending the route had minimal correlation with American Airlines ending their codesharing agreement. Moreover, San Francisco is not an American Airlines hub.

The graphs below depict the capacity difference between the Jet Airways 777-300ER and the Etihad 777-200LR.

First Class Capacity on both aircraft are equal. However, on the 777-200LR it takes up a larger percentage of seats(3.3% on the Etihad Airways versus 2.3% on Jet Airways). Business Class Capacity is 10% larger on the Etihad Airways aircraft representing up to 16.7% of total seats. On the Jet Airways aircraft, Business Class is only 8.7% of total seats.

On the Economy Class side, the Jet Airways aircraft has 117 additional Economy Class Seats, due to the larger size of the 777-300ER. Economy Class represents 89.0% and 79.9% of total seats for Jet Airways and Etihad Airways respectively. This is representative of Etihad Airways having the more Premium Dense aircraft. Furthermore, the 777-200LR is perhaps more suitable for Etihad to use rather than their own 777-300ER. The 777-300ER could be payload restricted on this route and Etihad may not have been able to fill the additional seats on the 777-300ER.

Qatar Airways does not serve San Francisco as of today. However they announced their intention to. They will most probably utilise their 777-200LR. Their 777-300ER may be too large and it may be payload restricted. The A350-900 is another option as well but it might be payload restricted. With tensions between Qatar Airways and fellow OneWorld partner American Airlines, this route could follow the same fate as Etihad's. The lack of transfer traffic at San Francisco is a concern since American Airlines dropped codesharing with Qatar Airways. Qatar Airways has since begun codesharing with Alaska Airlines and JetBlue. With Alaska Airlines' purchase of Virgin America, Qatar Airways can offer additional connectivity via their codeshare. The graph below depicts the capacity between the cabin classes for Qatar Airways.

We have no additional comments regarding the particulars of Qatar Airways' 777-200LR cabin. Comments made in Part A will not be repeated.

Turkish Airlines began flying to San Francisco 5 times weekly on April 2015 onboard 777-300ER equipment. Flights went daily a month later. This was possibly due to aircraft delivery/scheduling issues. Some of you will know that Turkish Airlines painted on of their 777-300ER's in a special livery(Safranbolu) to aid in promoting the new flight. San Francisco is United Airlines' Hub. United is able to offer a wider range of connectivity options for passengers connecting from the Turkish Airlines flight. This is one route where connectivity options and codesharing should not be an issue for Turkish Airlines.

The graphs below depicts the capacity between the cabin classes for Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines.

The comments made in Part A will not be repeated. We have no additional comments regarding Turkish Airlines' 777-300ER.

We will now compare the current capacity offerings of the 4 airlines. 

This gives us an indication of the fleet types that have flown into San Francisco. Emirates offered the largest range in total seat numbers, ranging from 266 to 489 seats per flight. Emirates operates the only A380 service. Etihad offers the fewest seats with 239. The Emirates 777's no longer serve the route and Etihad will fly the 777-300ER from March next year. We included Qatar Airways' 777-200LR to determine their position in the market. Emirates no longer flies 777's on this route. We must stress that Jet Airways did not fly this route. Etihad Airways used a Jet Airways configured 777-300ER. We will refer to this layout as the "Jet Airways" layout.

Comments regarding First Class are the same as per Part A. Emirates is the only airline offering First Class(14 Seats) since Etihad ceased flying the route. 

The mean number of Business Class seats is 45.86. This has been slightly pushed upwards by the Emirates A380. This has been pushed downwards by Jet Airways. Once again Emirates offers the largest number of daily seats (76). Of the Boeing 777 service it is Turkish Airlines that offers the largest number of daily Business Class Seats(49).

The mean number of Economy Class Seats is pushed upwards by the Emirates A380 and to a lesser extent by Jet Airways/Turkish Airlines. It is pushed downwards by the Etihad 777-200LR. Emirates once again offers the largest number of daily Economy Class Seats(399). Of the Boeing 777 operators, the brief operation of Jet Airways offered the largest number of Economy Class Seats(308). Currently, it is Turkish Airlines that offers the largest number of daily Economy Class Seats(300).

The Standard Deviation of each Cabin Class is reflective of the various aircraft types included in the analysis. The most popular aircraft is the 777 with only Emirates using an A380. The bar graph below depicts the capacity split between the various cabin classes onboard Emirates and Turkish Airlines. 

The Capacity split is the same as Part A, if we include both Etihad and Qatar Airways.

However, as at year end 2017, only Emirates and Turkish Airlines fly the route. Emirates is the market leader with 489 seats reflecting 58.35% of total capacity. Turkish Airlines has 349 seats reflecting 41.65% of total capacity. Emirates has 100% of the First Class capacity. Emirates has 60.8% of Business Class Capacity with Turkish Airlines having the remaining 39.2%. Emirates has 57.1% of Economy Class Capacity with Turkish Airlines capturing the remaining 42.9%. Daily, there is 14 First, 125 Business, 699 Economy Class yielding a total of 878 daily seats into San Francisco. Here is a link to Part C.