From the Middle East to the US West Coast Part C

By Shihal Sapry

In Part C, we will look at all other West Coast destinations in the USA served by the 4 carriers of interest. Here is a link to Part A and Part B Emirates is the only carrier to serve Seattle. Qatar Airways will be the only carrier to Las Vegas if/when they begin service. All four carriers do not serve any other US West Coast Destinations other than the ones analysed in Parts A and B and Seattle.

Emirates is the only carrier that serves Seattle. In March 2012, Emirates launched flights between Dubai and Seattle(EK 229) onboard Boeing 777-200LR equipment. The 777-300ER was introduced in 2014. The scheduled flight time is 14 hours 40 minutes.

In July 2015, Emirates introduced a second daily flight(EK 227) onboard Boeing 777-200LR. EK 229 was upgraded from the 777-200LR to the 777-300ER in December 2016. In 2017, Emirates reduced frequency on their Seattle flight from twice daily, down to once daily all onboard the 777-300ER. We mentioned in Part A and B that reasons included US Immigration Policies and the electronics ban.

Emirates has favoured frequency on this route and will most probably add frequency over capacity. Furthermore, sending in an A380 to the home of Boeing is perhaps not the best idea in terms of public relations.

It is perhaps unlikely that the other carriers would launch flights to Seattle soon. Nevertheless, Turkish Airlines could perhaps utilise their A330-200 as an entry into the market aircraft. Etihad has the option of the A330-200 or 787-9 depending on how they view the market. Qatar Airways could use their 787-8 or 777-200LR in terms of capacity.

No carrier serves San Diego or Las Vegas. Qatar Airways has announced their intention to fly from Doha to Las Vegas 4 times weekly onboard 777-200LR equipment. They have pushed back the start date a few times now. Qatar Airways would be the only carrier on the route. Emirates may not expand to Las Vegas and with Etihad cutting back on US flights, we may not see new service soon. We could see Turkish Airlines introducing flights in the near future, either direct or via a tag-on.

We will now summarise total capacity to the US West Coast. We will consider the capacity at the timeframe just before Etihad cut their San Francisco service. All flights are daily flights. We will just discuss the total capacity. The pie graph below describes the capacity split between the airlines for total daily seats.

We can instantly see that Emirates has the lion share with 48.14% of total daily seats(1332 seats). Turkish Airlines has a larger presence in the US West Coast with 25.23% of total daily seats(698 seats). Turkish Airlines has approximately half the capacity that Emirates has. When we consider that this analysis does not include the peak of Emirates' capacity, the scale of Emirates' West Coast operations is astounding. Etihad has only 17.28% of total daily seats(478 seats). This will drop as Etihad withdrew from San Francisco. Qatar Airways has the smallest capacity with only 9.36% of total daily seats(259 seats). If we omit Etihad's San Francisco flight then Qatar Airways will have a larger share of capacity over Etihad. The next pie graph describes the capacity split by cabin class for total daily seats.

First Class represents a meagre 1.88%(52 seats) of total daily seats. Emirates has the largest share of seats, with Etihad being the only other airline that offers First Class. Business Class is represented by a modest 14.96%(414 seats) of total daily seats. Emirates is the market leader again, contributing 194 of the 414 seats. Of the non-A380 operators, Turkish Airlines offers the largest number of Business Class Seats. Economy Class is represented by a massive 83.16%(2301 seats) of total daily seats. Emirates provides 1102 seats which is nearly half of all economy class seats. Turkish Airlines offers a modest 600 seats which is almost half of what Emirates offers.

In conclusion, we note that Emirates is the capacity leader in this analysis. Etihad appears to be the least competitive by withdrawing service. It is difficult to comment on Qatar Airways as they only began flying to the US(Los Angeles) quite recently. While they have announced Las Vegas as their second West Coast destination, the start date for flight has been postponed. With the overfly ban in place back home, Qatar Airways has a full plate. Turkish Airlines offers more capacity than the other carriers but is not at the Emirates level yet. The shorter flight time of Turkish Airlines(due to the location of Istanbul relative to Dubai/Doha) contributes positively by making US West Coast destinations more attractive. Demand, yields and codeshare connections also play a major role.